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Andrey Petrosyan. Francis R. This is especially true if we continue with above normal temps which usually translates to more cloud cover for us. So don't put a lot of faith in those bright sunny icons you keep seeing in the forecast!
Could we get a few mm of water out all this "fluff" that fell yesterday and will be falling today??? The last thing they need is a storm!!! Send the blizzard over here You have to think that we have had a couple mm of water with all of the flurries we've had over the last several days. It seems to have a fair amount of moisture in it but would be almost unmeasuable. Is 7 days a long time to get another 4mm of pcpn. NOT or maybe? Ex July, Rob's measured at least 20mm in the last week of every month this year since March.
Eyeball avg of 45 for the last 8 months. It's in the bag. Then again, only ,4,6 and 9 have had 4mm or more in the last week this millennium. Actually these flurries have had very little moisture content.
The airport hasn't picked up anything measurable over the past few days.. We'll need help from a Colorado low to do that :. Received about 2 cm of fluff today.. Snow on ground 23 cm. I took a core sample of the snowpack and it melted down to 31 mm water equivalent.
That's from a total 68 cm of accumulated snow since mid November. This is a change from their 12z run which showed the main low developing further south over Texas and then moving northeast.. There will be a few more model iterations before we can start thinking about impacts to southern MB.. Note that these long range models are highly sensitive to model initialization inaccuracies.. Hi Happy Boxing day Sunday! I have been following the storm at the end of next week at long range models have been pretty consisent in showing a northward moving low-upr low through minnesota.
That doesnt mean things cant change Looks like a wind one too which we havent had yet this year. With SD 30 inches in Devils Lake and 6 to 15 inches elsewhere lots of snow to blow around for sure. Seems to me also these types of storms love to track due north and almost end up being a bit west of where you would think.
Will need to keep this in mind. Before this one Hoping Winnipeg can get 5 mm. Hi Dan GF! Yes the models have been all over the place with the storm at the end of the week! I still have not voted on Rob's poll yet cause I want to wait till the last day to see if there are any last minute changes!
Looks like area's in open country are getting low visibility's in blowing snow this morning! Even here in Winnipeg the air is filled with either ice crystals or it's all the snow that is airbourne!! What a nasty wind that is! One step outside the building this morning sent me right back inside! I guess Weather network models are calling for a direct hit for a storm on the weekend with them calling for well in excess of 20cm as of this morning.
EC is just calling for a 60 percent chance of flurries on thursday and sunny the rest of the weekend. How long will it take to the track of that storm becomes more certain. I've always thought that The Weather Network must use raw output from the GFS or some other long-range model for the bulk of their forecasts.
That explains why TWN forecasts will often show big storms in the forecast way out in the long-range. However, the weakness of using that system is that you are completely at the mercy of the models. I like the idea that EC has by using ensemble forecasts for day 6 and 6. However, the ensemble tends to lean in the opposite direct by resisting the urge to display anything too extreme.
The models are indicating a wave of snow on Thursday night into Friday which will help in getting us very close to breaking the record!!! Ensembles are the way to go for extended range forecasts. You shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket i. Even this strategy won't always give you the right answer, but you'll be more successful than not. As for the storm later this week..
Snow amounts too early to call, but a very preliminary guess of cm looks possible over southern MB. The effect of this is to prolong the snow over southern MB through Saturday with strong winds to boot. I will be posting a new thread on this potential storm system this afternoon.. Hey Rob I know the extended fcst is automated up there Just curious how your system works.
I thought is was computed generated fcst based on the GEM. I hope we get that record. It will be a great story to tell the grandkids. Hi Dan.. The extended forecasts for Day is automatically generated from the GGEM which goes out to hrs. I've noticed that the CEFS ensemble product tends to be too dry and frequently will gloss over pcpn events.
Temperatures can be wonky at times too, and you'll sometimes see a major change between the Day 5 and Day 6 forecasts that is just attributable to a change in the model producing the forecast.
That explains why Friday and Saturday say "sunny" right now.. That is ingenious indeed!! Amazing what weather hobbyists can come up with! YWG airport picked up 0. So we're basically 3. The above mentioned mentioned advantages make mentor outlet an individual on the most favorite situation that adult men and girls need to go. These, quite faulty, things arrived at mentor clearance retain for phony sale made.
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